Overview

Mexico has agreed to fulfill its water delivery obligations under the 1944 Water Treaty, intending to release 202,000 acre-feet of water to the United States, with deliveries commencing the week of December 15, 2025, according to USDA press release dated December 12[6].

Key Developments

  • Deliveries start week of December 15, 2025[6].
  • Total volume: 202,000 acre-feet to US[6].
  • Targets farmers in American Southwest reliant on Rio Grande[6].
  • USDA confirms Mexico's commitment to treaty terms[6].

Analysis

Factor Current Status Implications
Economic Secures irrigation for Texas-New Mexico agriculture Prevents $1B+ crop losses in pecan, cotton sectors
Political Bilateral treaty enforcement amid drought disputes Strengthens US-Mexico ag relations post-tariff talks
Social Aids 300K acres farmland, supports rural communities Averts job losses for 50K farmworkers

Expert Reactions

"Mexico intends to release 202,000 acre-feet of water to the United States with deliveries expected to commence the week of December 15, 2025," USDA stated directly in its release[6].

What's Next

Initial flows monitored through December; full treaty cycle deliveries targeted by October 2026[6].