Overview
The US Consumer Price Index for November 2025 hits markets today, Thursday, December 18, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This release follows a 43-day federal government shutdown that wiped out October data collection, forcing BLS to skip that report entirely.[1]
Key Developments
- BLS confirms no October 2025 CPI due to shutdown halting contemporaneous price surveys; November year-over-year rates fully available, but some month-over-month changes caveated or absent.[1]
- Release at 08:30 a.m. ET (13:30 UTC); New York sees it at 8:30 Thursday ET, London at 13:30 GMT, Frankfurt at 14:30 CET.[1]
- Consensus forecasts headline and core CPI at 2.9% to 3.1% YoY, after Fed's recent rate cuts brought funds rate to 4.25%-4.50%.[1]
- Clustered data week: November jobs report out December 16, CPI December 18, consumer expenditures December 19.[1]
Analysis
| Factor | Current Status | Implications |
|---|---|---|
| Economic | Forecasts 2.9-3.1% YoY CPI; dollar near weakest in months, gold over $4,300 | Upside surprise could halt Fed cuts, lift yields above 4%, weaken DXY below 98.[1] |
| Political | Post-shutdown data gaps; Fed slows easing after three 2025 cuts | Heightens scrutiny on Fed's 'one cut in 2026' path amid sticky inflation near 3%.[1] |
| Social | N/A from report | Markets brace for volatility in indices, FX, bonds as holiday trading thins liquidity.[1] |
Expert Reactions
BLS states: 'It cannot retroactively collect the missing price data because the survey requires contemporaneous observations.'[1] Fed notes inflation 'remains somewhat elevated' post-early 2025 highs.[1]
What's Next
December 19 brings annual consumer expenditures data; markets eye if CPI alters Fed's two-cut 2025 projection.